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Prediction for CME (2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-09T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42546/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-11-09T07:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and in the NE by STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is an X1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E03) which peaked at 2025-11-09T07:35Z seen in GOES SUVI 131. Dimming and field line movement associated with this flare seen in GOES SUVI 171, 193 and 284 appears to have a Northwestern trajectory, suggesting the possibility of deflection. This CME has appears to have a very asymmetric morphology from the perspective of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. There does not appear to be a shock feature associated with this event.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T22:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-09T17:19:36Z
## Message ID: 20251109-AL-003
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2025-11-09T07:24Z.

Estimated speed: ~734 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 2/18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A (glancing blow).  The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-09T23:55Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-11T05:26Z, and Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-11T02:14Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-11-11T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-11T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251109_121200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E03) with ID 2025-11-09T07:01:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-09T07:35Z (see notifications 20251109-AL-001, 20251109-AL-002).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Lead Time: 52.87 hour(s)
Difference: 7.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-09T17:19Z

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